Executive Summary

Drone attacks by established guerrillas and smaller non-state actors in the Colombian countryside are on the rise, and we do not see any indicators that this trend will reverse before December.

Similarly, we expect a continuation of Colombian guerrilla groups’ documented pattern of enhancing drone warfare capabilities. The National Liberation Army and the Armed Revolutionary Forces, for instance, are turning to fiber optic models to overcome jamming efforts by the Colombian National Army and there are indications that one group is incorporating thermal imaging capabilities.

Despite the Colombian Army’s expansion of counter-drone capabilities, including President Gustavo Petro’s order of the construction of a drone shield to protect military personnel, rural military outposts–in regions like Cauca and Catatumbo—are likely to remain vulnerable, at least until May.

Key Judgements

KJ-1. Drone attacks by established guerrillas and smaller non-state actors in the Colombian countryside are on the rise, and we do not see any indicators that this trend will reverse before December.

1. Bogota intelligence sources cited by the Cambio media outlet claim drone attacks increased this past year, with a total of 418 verified strikes between 2024 and 2026. [source]
2. During that same time period, Colombian Defence Ministry data reported by the Tiempo media outlet documents 8,395 attempted drone attacks attributed to non-state actors. [source]
3. Between April 2024 and October 2025, Colombian authorities documented 225 injuries and 17 confirmed deaths as a result of improvised drone attacks by the main guerrilla groups in the country. [source]

KJ-2. Similarly, we expect a continuation of Colombian guerrilla groups’ documented pattern of enhancing drone warfare capabilities.

1. Colombian military investigators this month concluded that the February guerrilla attack on the San Jorge barracks was the first documented fiber-optic drone strike in Colombia. Also in February, academic studies and established sources cited by the New York Times reported that guerrilla groups in Colombia possessed fiber-optic drones, noting that they are immune to jamming by the Colombian National Army. [source, source]
2. The National Liberation Army as of February was modifying Chinese commercial drones with thermal imagery cameras, according to research by Red Balloon Cybersecurity. [source]
3. That same month, Colombian Army soldiers seized two Hunter portable anti-drone systems from Ivan Mordisco’s guerrilla group during a counterinsurgency operation in the Cauca Region. [source] 
4. Guerrilla formations are likely to increase the payload capacity of fiber-optics drones by June, according to Camilo Mendoza, a local expert on counterdrone systems. [source] 

KJ-3. Colombia’s army is currently expanding its counter-drone capabilities, but rural military outposts are likely to remain vulnerable at least until May. 

1. President Gustavo Petro in January ordered the construction of a drone shield to counter the threat posed by guerrillas and other non-state actors. [source, source]
2. Weeks later, the National Liberation Army wounded 12 Colombian National Army servicemen while targeting a helicopter landing zone in Serranías de San Lucas with a drone. [source, source]
3. Colombian national security experts cited by the New York Times claim that the drone shield’s deployment is unlikely before scheduled elections in May. [source]

Statement on Analysis

We have moderate confidence in our assessment of drone warfare in Colombia. Despite the quality of government reports and independent research, we do not have ground sources that can clarify the extent of the employment of fiber-optic drones, as reported in publicly available information. In addition to this data gap, we have blind spots on operational solutions to the drone threat that may already have been fielded by government forces in remote areas, such as improvised cope cages seen in the Ukraine war, but that remain unknown to media outlets and government officials posted in Bogota. Part of our analysis is founded on the assumption that Colombian actors will continue ramping up the use and sophistication of drones, but we believe this is a reasonable assumption given the proven, and widely reported on, cost-effectiveness and lethality of drones in other conflicts around the globe.

Intel Cut Off Date: 03 March 2026