Countering Insurgency: Forecast on Burkina Faso

On 25 November, jihadists killed over 40 civilians. Burkina Faso has faced worsening instability as it battles extremist groups and distances itself from France and the EU.

Instead of repairing relations with their former security partners, Burkina has sought to further their relationship with the Wagner PMC and establish a security partnership with Mali and Niger. The search for alternative security partners has led to further cooperation with Russia on energy development and security issues. Burkina’s junta finds itself between terrorist groups, a hostile international community, and aggravated parts of its own population. 

Key Judgement 1: It is highly unlikely that the regime will gain the hearts and minds of the population in the near term.

Key Judgement 2: It is likely that terrorist activity will undermine Burkina’s human security so long as the security services are disorganised and inefficient.

Key Judgement 3: It is likely that Burkina Faso will look for alternative energy and partnerships to replace African and European countries and financial institutions.

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