Executive Summary

China’s recent export controls on rare-earth elements (REEs) are likely aimed at constraining non-Chinese production of components critical to Western forces’ defence needs. These measures were accompanied by export controls on lithium-ion battery materials and technologies. These are likely meant to reinforce China’s dominance across battery supply chains. Thereby, Curtailing Western industrial diversification and creating long-term technological dependencies. Concurrently, US and Chinese efforts to become self-sufficient, coupled with the interdependence of China’s control over critical REE supply chains and Western dominance of semiconductor production. Consequently, this is creating a cycle of tariffs and export controls that will likely continue affecting the global economy over the next year.