Russia is targeting Polish government organizations and private entities with state-sponsored cyber attacks and espionage activities for years. Recently Russia and Belarus have been linked to a failed coordinated campaign to sabotage the Polish government and several of its agencies. The regional tension caused by the war in Ukraine eroded relations between Russia and NATO causing an increase in cyber attacks and influence campaigns aimed at Poland and other member nations. 

Key Judgment 1. It is highly likely that Russian espionage and cyber attacks continue to target NATO countries as regional conflicts increase tension.

Key Judgment 2. It is highly likely that coordinated cyber operations will become more common with allied countries and hacking groups sympathetic to Russia.

Key Judgment 3. It is highly likely that Russia will continue cyber operations aimed at causing animosity between the Polish government and citizens.