Mexican cartels evolved in the last years from local militias with limited technology access into highly organized paramilitary structures. While armed violence remains their primary method of aggression against perceived enemies, these non-state actors have managed to develop serious capabilities to engage in asymmetrical warfare against rival gangs and state forces.
The Gulf Cartel and the Sinaloa Cartel -to name a few- have already begun to weaponize technology by buying spyware or recruiting hackers. Tools related to target acquisition range from access to online government databases to real-time cellphone geolocation, while small drones and signal jammers are used to cover the tracks of illegal activities on both sides of the border.
Key Judgement 1. Mexican cartels will highly likely increase their cyberwarfare capabilities and deployment of spyware as a means of obtaining actionable intelligence against rival gangs or government entities.
Key Judgement 2. Mexican cartels will likely continue to expand their cybercrime activities inside the dark web and the cryptocurrency community by recruiting or coercing external talent from hacker groups into the criminal structures.
Key Judgement 3. It is almost certain that Mexican cartels will continue to use cyber warfare to shape the attitudes and behaviour of target populations in areas under their control. This includes psychological operations and online recruiting.
