A deteriorating security situation in the Sahel has seen Burkina Faso take decisive measures to ensure the security of the Sahelian state. Widespread terrorist attacks in the north of the country have seen large amounts of civilian and also Burkinabe soldiers dying to attacks by groups such as Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM). Additionally, the government has been accused of taking advantage of this deteriorating situation in order to clamp down on Burkinabe society. Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali have also additionally been working towards creating their own alternative to the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

Key Judgment 1. It is highly likely that the deteriorating security situation in Burkina Faso will lead to more deaths by terrorist attacks by militants in the north of the country.

Key Judgment 2. It is highly likely that the Burkinabe government will take advantage of the deteriorating security situation in order to clamp down on local society.

Key Judgment 3. It is highly likely that Burkina Faso will utilise the deteriorating security situation in the Sahel to form an alternative to ECOWAS.