Executive Summary

Developments in the drone and AI fields offer new options for the delivery and design of “dirty bombs,” also known as Radiological Dispersion Devices (RDD), possibly allowing for more effective design and delivery of such a weapon than was previously possible. To date, we have not found any reports that a dirty bomb has ever detonated, and the reason is not totally clear. Agencies like the CIA, Mossad, and many others have long tracked the issue of RDDs, which could provide one reason, but advances in drone and AI technology may add new variables in bad actors’ calculus on whether or not to use such a device.

An RDD is a low-tech device consisting of conventional explosive, such as dynamite, combined with radioactive material. The detonation of the device disperses radioactive material into the surrounding area, delivering the psychological impact of an improvised explosive device’s detonation and the socioeconomic impact associated with the resulting contamination of the area. Historically, the immediate impact–physical danger–of the radiological material itself has been considered comparatively minor. The radioactive component of an RDD can consist of items that are available in commercial facilities, such as hospitals, and are sometimes not well secured, especially in underdeveloped nations with lax security protocols, despite years of attention to this issue.