The National Liberation Army (Ejército de Liberación Nacional, ELN) is the largest remaining leftist armed group in Colombia since the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) signed a peace deal with the government in 2016. Largely funded by drug trafficking, the ELN has an extensive network in urban centres in Colombia and on the border with Venezuela. Since 2016, the ELN’s forces have doubled to an estimated 5,000 fighters. While the group’s ideology and aims are everchanging, ELN’s commander announced in 2019 that ELN’s recent goals are to end its decades-long conflict with the Colombian government and to assure protection for impoverished groups throughout the country. In recent years, the ELN has expanded its deadly campaign to over 170 municipalities across Colombia. It has also expelled rival groups in Venezuela and has recently begun coordinating directly with the Venezuelan military, leading to geopolitical risks and gross human rights violations.
Key Judgement 1: It is highly likely that the growing influence of the ELN on Venezuela will impact the future of the US-Venezuelan relationship over the next year.
- The Venezuelan military’s coordination with the ELN has become vital for the Maduro regime due to its economic crisis that caused its troops to retreat from border regions. The ELN has acted as the military’s proxy in those areas, responsible for regulating social and political activity in borderlands.
- The ELN, which famously extracts its revenue from drug trafficking and illegal mining, serves to provide funds for the Maduro regime. The ELN is known to run illicit mines, and the Maduro government sells mined minerals through state-owned companies. (source)
- Venezuela and the US recently held talks. It is highly likely that Venezuela’s relationship with the ELN will impede economic stability and democratic reform in the country. It is likely that due to the close nature of the US-Colombia relationship, the Maduro regime will need to relinquish its close relationship with ELN if it seeks improved ties to the US.
Key Judgement 2: It is highly likely that violence between the ELN and other armed groups will continue along the Colombia-Venezuela border.
- Since the onset of 2022, the ELN and various armed dissident groups that are remnants of the defunct FARC have been fighting over control of territory in Colombia’s Arauca state. Both groups have killed dozens of people, including civilians.
- These territory disputes have led to forced disappearances, forced recruitment of children to these armed groups, and forced displacement of civilians. Human rights groups report that Venezuelan security forces have been conducting joint operations with ELN fighters and are complicit in these abuses.
- Since clashes broke out in January 2022, approximately 3,860 people are displaced in Arauca, and over 3,300 have fled the Venezuelan border for Colombia. These displaced people have insufficient access to health services, food, and drinking water. (source)
- Many displaced civilians are living in improvised shelters, which armed groups have threatened to attack. Humanitarian agencies claim that displaced children are at a high risk of recruitment by the ELN. (source)
- Colombian authorities have deployed their military to Arauca, but they have been unable to provide sufficient protection to civilians.
Key Judgement 3: It is likely that the results of Colombia’s upcoming election will impact the future of Colombia’s relationship with the ELN over the next year.
- On May 26, Colombia is holding presidential elections. Left-wing Gustavo Petro and center-right candidate Federico Gutierrez are currently leading opinion polls. (source)
- The ELN recently announced it would hold a ten-day unilateral ceasefire across the country, to generate a “better atmosphere.. so that we can see who could be the winning candidate.” This is welcome, as violence in Colombia increases during election time. (source)
- Both Petro and Gutierrez support recommitment to the 2016 peace deal that dissolved FARC and both have made platform promises of anti-corruption and tightening of security.
- Petro, who himself is a former guerilla member, has said he would prioritize reaching agreements with dissident FARC groups and the ELN. (source)
- Regardless of the outcome of the elections, the new President of Colombia will have to ameliorate the country’s worsening security situation by cracking down on guerilla groups. Homicide rates are rising, cocaine production is growing, and Venezuela’s increasing reliance on ELN is worsening the already turbulent Colombia-Venezuelan relationship.
Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 25th of May 2022