A resurgent guerrilla campaign in Colombia brings back the ghosts of the war that plagued the country once in the past. Negotiations for peace with armed groups fell in and out of favor with different governments for decades, but the current administration made a campaign out of the promise to achieve total peace that now threatens to implode.
The National Liberation Army (ELN) increased attacks on the Colombian Armed Forces (EJC) and additionally, broke the ceasefire agreements that were in place. Despite a hundred violations of the ceasefire in the last two years, military commanders consider the current attacks the final straw and are on a war path to regain the initiative in rural areas.
The Ministry of Defense declared a no-quarter battle against the guerrillas as President Petro has also suspended the negotiations in retaliation for an explosive attack that left a dozen casualties in the local army. Meanwhile, Venezuela and Ecuador are preparing for possible rear operations in border areas controlled by armed non-state actors.
Key Judgement 1. Guerrillas in Colombia are likely at their strongest capacity in 2024 since the peace deals in 2016. This strength is almost certain to translate in attacks on the Colombia Army.
Key Judgement 2. The National Liberation Army (ELN) is highly likely to become the main target of the Colombian Armed Forces (EJC) in counter-insurgency.
Key Judgement 3. Guerrillas in Colombia are highly likely to use border corridors in Venezuela and Ecuador as staging areas for launching attacks and obtaining revenue.
