Executive Summary

We assess that the terrorist group Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen (Al-Shabaab) in mid-April seized control of Adan Yabaal, a strategically important town approximately 200km from the capital Mogadishu, despite initial denials by the Somali government. 

This presents another major victory for Al-Shabaab and occurs amid their Shabelle offensive, ongoing since February 2025. They have since 2022 gradually taken control of territories previously held by the Somali National Army (SNA).

Meanwhile, the ongoing clan grievances, poor governance, and lack of military professionalism contribute to the challenges faced by SNA as they struggle to retain territory under continuous Al-Shabaab attacks.

For this report, we spoke to a local source in Mogadishu.

Images Sourced From: CTC Westpoint