Executive Summary
The issue of school shootings, a phenomenon mainly found in the United States, is constantly growing and evolving. The recent involvement of females as perpetrators in incidents raises concern about the potential of a new trend, though the problem has traditionally been male-dominated and women’s participation in violent crimes is statistically less common, historically speaking.
Changing gender norms, societal roles and the spreading of online extremism may be driving the recent spike in female-related incidents. Notably, female perpetrators of mass violence seem to exhibit the same warning signs as males. However, those indicators may draw less attention due to gender stereotypes. Effective prevention strategies must address these evolving dynamics and focus on tailored interventions.
Key Judgements
KJ-1. A cluster of female school shooting cases in the past four months raises concerns about a possible new phenomenon that bucks historical trends.
- The Abundant Life Christian School shooting of December 2024, perpetrated by Natalie Rupnow, is the first episode since 1979 involving a female school shooter taking multiple lives. [source]
- Lyedja Santos, 19, was arrested in December 2024 for an attempt to start a school shooting in E. Berilo Wanderley School in Natal, Brazil, representing the only recent case involving a female perpetrator outside of the United States. [source]
- Trinity Shockley, 18, was arrested in February 2025 for planning a shooting at Mooresville High School, Indiana. Notably, she had communicated her intention to attack on the platform Discord. [source]
- Two girls aged 15 and 16 were arrested in February 2025 for planning a shooting and bombing at Memorial High School in Houston, Texas. [source]
- FBI active shooter data shows that two of 64 school shooters (3%) from 2000 to 2019 were female. [source]
KJ-2. Increased female involvement in violent online subcultures and changing gender norms will likely shape future trends in school shootings.
- Natalie Rupnow was a frequent visitor of the website “Watch People Die,” which hosts violent content related to death. [source]
- Photographs show Natalie Rupnow in a KMFDM shirt, also worn by Columbine’s shooter Dylan Klebold in his basement tapes. [source].
- Inspired by school shooter content, Trinity Shockley’s Discord activity suggests involvement in dedicated online communities. [source]
- Societal change is reversing a longstanding trend of women having less access to, and knowledge of, firearms than male counterparts. [source]
- Media coverage of female school shootings may inspire vulnerable women to take similar actions. [source]
KJ-3. Given the limited number of cases involving female perpetrators, there is currently no evidence of different warning signs than those identified in males, but those indicators may go unnoticed by observers who embrace historical stereotypes of female docility.
- Researches show that most K-12 school shooters show signs of personal crisis leading to the event. Furthermore, they use online platforms to communicate emotional instability and suicidal plans. [source]
- The majority of perpetrators are likely to communicate their plans before conducting the attack, either directly with friends or through online platforms. The episode of Trinity Shockley is an example of this. [source] [source]
- Despite denying the existence of a fixed profile for school shooters, the FBI Behavioral Analysis Unit (BAU) recognises common motives and recurring patterns. [source]
Statement on Analysis
We are confident in this analysis due to the quality and amount of reporting available on recent, concrete cases showing these dynamics to be true. However, at the moment, the number of female shooter cases remains small, forcing us to assume that a small sample size is representative of a bigger trend. Furthermore, we acknowledge that privacy concerns may limit the publication of some relevant details in these criminal cases, which could create a gap–or even a misunderstanding–of our perspective.
As of now, the number of cases involving female school shooters is limited, hindering the possibility to develop a fuller assessment or detect any discernably different indicators that may exist in female actors before they lash out. We note that, while female perpetrators manifest the same warning signs as male perpetrators–expressing instability, violent ideation, online radicalization, etc.–longstanding stereotypes about female passivity may cause observers to overlook known signs in women, but this is a speculative observation at this point. We are certain that the monitoring of ongoing events, if the sample size of female shooters grows, will allow us to refine our analysis over time.
