Haiti is almost certain to remain destabilised in the short term, as criminal organisations that developed into paramilitary militias escalate attacks on government forces and unarmed civilians. Viv Ansam, a criminal coalition led by Jimmy “Barbecue” Cherizier controls approximately 85% of Port-Au-Prince and is the prime driver of armed violence. Alongside this militia is the Gran Grif gang, which is implicated in 80% of civilian deaths in the Artibonite region.

Furthermore, Haitian police elements and American military contractors are executing drone operations–with kamikaze airframes and commercial platforms–against the paramilitary elements that control the capital. Despite this development, we assess that manpower issues and operational underfunding make it unlikely that Haitian and Kenyan security forces will secure significant ground in Port-Au-Prince in the coming months.

Key Judgements

KJ-1. Kinetic drone operations, involving kamikaze and commercial platforms, against Haitian criminal organisations are almost certain to continue in the short term.

1. The Haitian National Police over the past four months expanded the employment of unidentified drones from surveillance operations to targeted strikes. [source]
2. American mercenary Erick Prince secured a contract with the Haitian Government to conduct drone operations against paramilitary gangs in Port-Au-Prince. [source]
3. Publicly available information shows the Haitian Task Force using commercial drones and lethal ordinance against gang members. [source] 

KJ-2. Viv Ansanm and Gran Grif, two local gangs, are highly likely to maintain their status as the primary threat to security forces and the civilian population

1. Viv Ansam, a coalition of the G9 and GPep paramilitary gangs under the leadership of Jimmy “Barbecue” Cherizier, has controlled 85% of Port-Au-Prince since January 2025. [source]
2. The U.S. Department of State assesses that Gran Grif is directly responsible for 80% of civilian deaths in the Artibonite area since 2022. [source]
3. Viv Ansam territorial expansion from 2024 to 2025 resulted in a 17% surge in violence against unnamed civilians and critical infrastructure. [source]

KJ-3. Haitian and Kenyan security forces are unlikely to secure significant ground in Port-Au-Prince due to operational underfunding and manpower issues. 

1. The Kenyan mission to Haiti as of May 2025 has only been able to deploy 715 of its 2500 expected staff. Said figure represents 40% of the security force. [source]
2. The Trump Administration in May 2025 froze a fifteen-million-dollar assistance package designated for the Kenya security mission in Haiti. [source]
3. Kenya’s national security adviser in April 2025 stressed that the mission was operating at a “suboptimal level,” citing underfunding issues and operational capacity. [source]

Statement on Analysis

Our Haiti 2025 Threat Assessment is based on high-quality sources available to the public. These include authoritative entities like the United States Department of State or the United Nations Haiti Mission.  Furthermore, we also included exact data and numbers collected by renowned experts and credible outlets. Based on this, we have high confidence in our assumptions and estimations about the conflict. 

Among the blind spots that could prove some assumptions wrong are the internal dynamics of the criminal coalitions. These delicate alliances of former enemies could implode as different factions compete for power quotas and bigger territories. A fragmentation of Viv Ansanm or Gran Grif would not decrease the level of violence, but could give Kenyan and Haitian police forces an upper hand in certain areas of the capital. One unknown variable that could affect our analysis is the extent to which any members of the international community will rise to fill the gap left in funding by the U.S. freezing of assistance. Continued or worsening instability may affect the quality of future reporting on the situation in Haiti, if reporting resources depart out of concerns for safety, which could complicate efforts to track the state of affairs on the ground going forward.