Executive Summary

During a 15 August 2025 summit, U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to negotiate a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire. Markedly, this left Ukraine conspicuously absent and much unresolved. Therefore, we assess that Trump attempted to use the summit and the Ukraine war more broadly to seek a much-needed political win for himself and his brand. In contrast, Putin used the façade of diplomacy to legitimise territorial gains and project power on the world stage. 

The summit elevated Putin internationally, undeniably ending his diplomatic isolation and further emboldening Moscow. Only days later, Moscow carried out a deliberate missile strike on a remote U.S. factory in western Ukraine, a move widely interpreted as an act of defiance against the U.S. 

Thus, we expect that any U.S.-supported concessions to Russia would erode Ukraine’s sovereignty, strain U.S. relations with allies, and weaken NATO–and the U.S. Furthermore, given Putin’s strategic policy of grey-zone, New Generation Warfare, any ceasefire would likely pause only open, overt fighting. Moreover, Russia remains highly likely to continue its covert, cyber, and hybrid operations. Moreover, while portraying a ceasefire as a step toward peace, Russia would likely use any pause to rebuild its military. Finally, this pause allows conditions for renewed aggression–and demands–against Ukraine and NATO.