Beginning in 2016, the United States (US) State Department allegedly uncovered an attack on diplomats at the American Embassy in Havana, Cuba. Initially believed to be the actions of a hostile foreign power using acoustic weapons to cause brain damage, the phenomenon was later coined as the ‘Havana Syndrome.’

Amid international intrigue, flawed science, and political ineptitude, the exact cause is yet to be identified. Although the US Intelligence Community (IC) and the Cuban Sonic Investigations Committee ruled out the influence of a foreign third-party actor.

At present, the medical consensus coheres around theories of mass psychogenic disorder. The deployment of chemical agents, or neurological weapons, seems an unlikely possibility based on the current body of evidence.

Key Judgement 1. It is highly unlikely that a foreign adversary bears responsibility for Havana Syndrome.

Key Judgement 2. Unless the US IC concretely implicates a hostile foreign power, it is highly likely that public opinion will view Havana Syndrome as a product of mass psychogenic illness rather than as an acoustic weapon.

Key Judgement 3. While scientific literature dismisses the application of either sonic or neurological weapons, the US IC will likely deflect its own domestic policy failures to the perceived malign intentions of China, Russia, and Cuba.