Executive Summary

2026 has seen Ethiopia’s security and political environment become increasingly volatile, characterised by a heightened risk of renewed conflict, further internal fragmentation, and rapidly shifting regional alliances. This report assesses the evolving risk landscape within and around Ethiopia, as well as examining the broader current regional dynamics. 

We assess that Eritrea and Ethiopia tensions are increasing in severity, elevating the risk of cross border clashes in the next six months. Tigray will highly likely be a central flashpoint for this renewed conflict between the Ethiopian Government and Eritrea or with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. Additionally, it is likely that such a conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea will fuse with Sudan’s war, merging two already devastating conflicts and thus amplifying their impact. We also assess that as of this writing, Ethiopia will likely keep the Somaliland memorandum of understanding alive as a bargaining chip – even as Abiy’s immediate red focus shifts toward Assab, ensuring Somalia‘s related sovereignty concerns remain acute through 2026.