Executive Summary
Authoritarian regimes’ arresting of Westerners, usually on fabricated or exaggerated charges, as a tool of statecraft shows no indication of stopping. Moscow and Tehran gained political leverage and saw financial gain during the latest use of such hostages for prisoner exchanges. Meanwhile, other countries that fall in their sphere of influence, like Venezuela, have adopted the same tactics to advance national interests, including sanctions relief.
Currently, our assessment points to Russia focusing on high-profile Americans who can be exchanged for Kremlin intelligence operators. Iran, conversely, is using most hostage diplomacy efforts to secure financial revenue from the United States and the European Union. Venezuela is expected to continue its pattern of detaining American citizens who can be traded down the road in political negotiations.
Images Sourced From: CBS,