India Out? A 12 Month Forecast of Bangladesh

On 7 January, Bangladesh held a general election amidst heightened political tension and international scrutiny. The Awami League, led by Sheikh Hasina, secured another term in power, reinforcing its strategic partnership with India. The elections were characterised by an abysmal 40% voter turnout, an opposition boycott, and sporadic incidents of violence. Allegations of Indian influence in the electoral process have compounded the domestic unrest, leading to an intensified “India-Out” campaign even as the government seeks good relations with its larger neighbour. 

Key Judgement 1. It is likely that nationalist movements against India will rise in Bangladesh in the next 12 months. 

Key Judgement 2. It is highly likely that India-Bangladesh relations will strengthen in the next 12 months. 

Key Judgement 3. Election irregularities will highly likely weaken U.S.-Bangladesh cooperation in the next 12 months.