Recent UK and US airstrikes have brought the Houthis back to the fore. Yemen’s Houthi movement has acquired a diverse arsenal of missiles and drones. Over the years, US and Arab coalition officials have collected and publicised evidence of Iranian arms smuggling to the Houthis. This evidence includes missile debris within Iranian manufacturing labels, naval interdictions of missile smuggling dhows originating from Iran, and missile-related training and equipment materials in Farsi seized from Houthi-controlled territory. The trajectory of Iran’s relationship with the Houthis has implications for security in the Red Sea and Arabian peninsula.

Key Judgement 1: It is highly likely that an empowered Houthi force will increase Iran’s power projection in a contest for regional hegemony with Saudi Arabia.

Key Judgement 2: Joint UK-US operations will likely impede Iranian arms-smuggling efforts in Yemen.

Key Judgement 3: It is highly likely that Somalia will remain a key transit corridor for Iranian arms smuggling.