Between 3 and 9 April, Jaish al-Adl (JAA) carried out three separate attacks on Iranian security forces in Iran’s southeastern Baluchestan-Sistan province, killing 21 security personnel. Since December 2023, JAA attacks on Iranian security forces have increased in sophistication despite Iran intensifying counter-terrorism operations against the organisation. JAA is a Sunni Salafi Jihadist separatist organisation who fight for the independence of the Baloch people in Iran and Pakistan. While JAA’s terror activity is confined to Iran’s Baluchestan-Sistan province, the terror organisation has strong cross-border links with Balochi communities in Pakistan. JAA is significantly smaller than other Baloch separatist groups but has nonetheless sought to imitate the tactics of groups such as the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) from Pakistan.
Key Judgement 1. It is likely the increase in Jaish al-Adl attacks over the last 12 months is driven by a combination of local Balochi grievances and a desire to deter outside investment and exploitation of Balochi resources.
Key Judgement 2. It is likely Jaish al-Adl is utilising US weapons left in Afghanistan to conduct complex attacks on Iranian security forces using platoon-sized elements (12-20 fighters).
Key Judgement 3. It is highly likely Jaish al-Adl use Pakistan’s Balochistan province as a rear base to conduct cross-border raids into Iran’s Baluchestan-Sistan province.
