Executive Summary

We assess that the recent increase in frequency, sophistication, and geographical distribution of attacks by the terrorist Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) signals an expansion of operational reach with the aim of connecting its foothold in the Sahel region into West Africa. To coordinate its attacks, JNIM increasingly relies on drones and satellite communication, signalling improved tactical acumen. JNIM’s emboldened activity exacerbates the volatile humanitarian situation in the region, causing more civilian deaths and internal displacement.

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