Recent tanker data indicates that Libyan crude oil exports declined over the course of the last several weeks. Floundering UN-backed talks between Libya’s competing governments proved incapable of producing an agreement on the leadership of the country’s central bank. Libya’s central banking authority is the entity responsible for managing the nation’s crude oil exports. As such, the lack of clear direction and also international confidence, led to several key oil fields going offline. Crude oil shutdowns are a common tactic used by both factions to gain leverage over one another. As a major OPEC member state, export insecurity may have far-reaching consequences for not only the Libyan peace process but also international markets. The Libyan Energy Crisis is far from over.

KJ-1: It is highly likely that Libya’s rival governments will continue exploiting production capacity to enhance political and economic standing in the next 12 months.

KJ-2: It is unlikely that collapsing Libyan production capacity will negatively affect global markets over the next 12 months.

KJ-3: It is likely that crude oil exports will fully rebound to pre-September 2024 levels in the next 12 months.