Update Status: Closed
Analytic Judgement
* Almost certain that Al Shabab is responsible (1502, 28th Oct., 2017)
* Likely that Al Shabab assessed the bystanders near blast site before attack (1610, 28th Oct., 2017)
* Realistic possibility that Al Shabab informants reside near blast site (1613, 28th Oct., 2017)
* Realistic possibility of Al Shabab info collection operations (1613, 28th Oct., 2017)
* Highly likely that truck used for first VBIED (1648, 28th Oct., 2017)
* Unlikely that Al Shabab active shooters wear uniform of Nasablod 2 Hotel security staff (1659, 28th Oct., 2017)
* Likely that Al Shabab active shooters used at least three vehicle including VBIED (1711, 28th Oct., 2017)
* Realistic possibility of a change from bomb attacks to hostage situation (1713, 28th Oct., 2017)
* Likely that Second VBIED targeted National Intelligence and Security Agency (1751, 28th Oct., 2017)
* Unlikely that driver of first VBIED was neutralised (1757, 28th Oct., 2017)
* Realistic possibility that Al Shabab conducted info collection operations maximum 216 hours to minimum 18 hours (1800, 28th Oct., 2017)
* Highly likely that Al Shabab active shooters equipped with small arms without explosive weapons (1801, 28th Oct., 2017)
* Almost certain that Al Shabab militants in hotel equipped with small arms and explosive devices (1820, 28th Oct., 2017)
* Unlikely that Al Shabab militants in the hotel were equipped with grenades (1822, 28th Oct., 2017)
* Realistic possibility that total number of Al Shabab militants in hotel is maximum 7 to minimum 3 (1822, 28th Oct., 2017)
* Likely that a heavy truck was used for first VBIED (1833, 28th Oct., 2017)
* Highly likely that the Al Shabab militants in hotel are comparably well trained and equipped than the militants of Jun 2016 Ambassador Hotel Attack. (1848, 28th Oct., 2017)
* Unlikely that all of the Al Shabab militants in hotel are wearing suicide bomb vest (1902, 28th Oct., 2017)
Timeline
– 1404, 28th Oct., 2017
First Blast: Nasa Hablod 2 Hotel, Mogadishu, Somalia
Video shot by our COO Ahmed Hassan
– 1459, 28th Oct., 2017
Second Blast: Southern checkpoint near ‘Unknown Soldier’s Monument’
Video shot by our COO Ahmed Hassan
– 1620, 28th Oct., 2017
Al Shabab claims responsibility on the attacks
– 1718, 28th Oct., 2017
At least 20 people are trapped in hotel
– 1749, 28th Oct., 2017
More than 15 people killed, including government officials
– 1756, 28th Oct., 2017
Truck that was used in first attack parked hours earlier, pretended to be broken down near hotel
– 1801, 28th Oct., 2017
Two Al Shabab Terrorist EKIA
– 1801, 28th Oct., 2017
Attackers used minibus with explosives for second VBIED
– 1814, 28th Oct., 2017
At least 3 Al Shabab militants are in the hotel
– 1820, 28th Oct., 2017
At least 13 killed, 16 wounded
– 1826, 28th Oct., 2017
Current member of the national army fund trustees, Abdinasir Garane killed in 1st VBIED
– 1832, 28th Oct., 2017
Photo of destroyed first VBIED vehicle was released on social media
– 1845, 28th Oct., 2017
On 6th June, 2016, Al Shabab conduct similar attacks in Ambassador Hotel, Mogadishu, Somalia
– 2103, 28th Oct., 2017
At the moment the guest have barricaded themselves on the upper floors while AS militants are controlling the bottom floors
– 2200, 28th Oct., 2017
There is still heavy gunfire and grenade explosions being heard, coming from inside of the hotel
– 2108, 28th oct., 2017
Firefight still continuing in first VBIED site
– 2114, 28th Oct., 2017
Casualty toll rises to at least 19 killed, 40 wounded
– 2136, 28th Oct., 2017
Casualty toll rises to at least 23 killed, 30 wounded
– 2345, 28th Oct., 2017
One more explosion observed in hotel
– 0429, 29th Oct., 2017
Official end of hotel seige
– 0443, 29th Oct., 2017
One Al Shabab militant captured, source unconfirmed
– 0702, 29th Oct., 2017
Photo of first VBIED site
Photo of second VBIED site
– 0841, 29th Oct., 2017
Live Tactical Analysis ends