Executive Summary

Widespread violence across Mexico following the death of Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera has declined since the first week of March, but the recent offensive of the Jalisco Cartel that left two dozen soldiers dead in twenty different states indicates the criminal organisation retains capabilities to conduct coordinated asymmetric attacks against the Mexican Government. 

Multiple streams of information also suggest that the Jalisco Cartel’s decentralised structure can allow the cartel to retain operational continuity and internal cohesion despite the death of Oseguera. Mexican authorities assess that at least four established regional leaders are positioned to assume senior command responsibilities in the Jaslico Cartel. 

Further direct action operations conducted by the Mexican Army against additional cartel targets are expected as United States intelligence continues to support President Sheibaum. Both the White House and the Palacio Nacional confirmed that bilateral intelligence cooperation frameworks enabled the targeting of Oseguera.