Executive Summary

We assess that recent Russian troop movements along the eastern NATO border* are more likely part of the well documented effort by Moscow to use hybrid warfare methods to psychologically and politically pressure NATO, and to test its readiness and responses, than indicative of Russian intent for immediate territorial gains. We expect that Russia will continue, if not expand, such provocations near NATO country borders in the coming months. We cannot rule out future Russian military action against any NATO member, but we assess that Moscow would likely face stiff allied and international opposition to any such move.

*Background: On 12 October, Estonian Foreign Affairs minister Margus Tsahkna announced the presence of seven armed Russian servicemen on the Saatse Boot road, a section of Estonian roadway that crosses Russian territory. He acknowledged a recent peak in Russia’s “assertiveness” against the West, but stated that the situation remains under control. Despite this, he also adds that the event prompted Estonia to temporarily halt traffic on the border to avoid any potential incidents and plan to reroute traffic permanently, signalling concerns over recurring provocations. [source]