A fleet of Russian warships the frigate “Groshkov”, nuclear powered “Kazan”, the “Pashin”, and the “Nikolai Chicker” have arrived in Cuba ahead of military exercises in the Caribbean. This move is seen as a projection of strength amidst rising tensions over Western support for Ukraine. It serves as a reminder to the U.S. of adversarial presence near its borders. The deployment, following President Biden’s authorization for Ukraine to use U.S.-provided weapons against Russia, indicates Russia’s capability to project power into the Western Hemisphere. While U.S. officials downplay the threat, the presence of these warships highlights Moscow’s support for allies Cuba and Venezuela and raises concerns about potential escalations in the region.

Key Judgment 1. It is highly likely Russia’s deployment of warships to Cuba reinforces its commitment to supporting allies Cuba and Venezuela.

Key Judgment 2. It is highly likely the arrival of Russian warships near American shores serves as a strategic reminder of Russia’s power projection capability.

Key Judgment 3. It is highly likely the presence of Russian warships will embolden Venezuela’s Maduro, risking further regional instability ahead of the scheduled elections.