The Sahel region comprises nine states which are united in a common category by geography more than political affinity. In essence, the African Union plays an important role in the political and economic integration of Africa. It can lead efforts at increasing security cooperation, yet the vastly different agendas and needs of these various governments complicate the ability of the AU to substantiate these efforts with actual policies. 

Key Judgement 1. It is unlikely that the African Union will successfully address member state’s security concerns in the Sahel in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 2. It is likely that the African Union will rely on regional and international partners to achieve its political aims in the next 12 months. 

Key Judgement 3. It is unlikely that Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali and Sudan will be re-admitted to the African Union in the next 12 months.