China has been increasing its presence in the Sahel region of Africa in recent years (source). This includes investments in infrastructure and trade, as well as participating in peacekeeping operations in the region. China has also signed agreements with several countries in the Sahel to enhance its political and economic ties. China’s expansion reflects its growing global influence and its desire to secure access to resources and markets (source). However, its increasing power in the region has also sparked concerns among Western nations.

Key judgement 1. It is highly likely that China will increasingly engage economically and politically in the region to strengthen its presence in the next 12 months.

Key judgement 2. It is likely that China will continue to get involved in peacekeeping and security operations to protect its interests in the region in the next 12 months.

Key judgement 3. It is likely that tensions will increase between the West and China over its involvement in the region as it poses a challenge to its interests in the next 12 months.