Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) is one of the largest threats to stability in the Sahel. Since the expulsion of France due to rising anti-French sentiment in 2023, tied in with coups which have gripped the region since 2020, the terror group has expanded. Since 21 January, JNIM launched over eight attacks in the southeast region of Burkina Faso.

This is the highest number since November 2023. In Mali, reports indicate attacks expanding south towards the Capital. Finally, Niger has seen a significant increase in JNIM-related violence and events since January. Given the already fluctuating situation and power dynamic at play between Russia and the US in the region, the terror threat only serves to exacerbate the problem further. 

Key Judgement 1. JNIM is likely to push south towards the capital In Mali over the next 12 months so long as Junta and Russian COIN operations are ineffective. 

Key Judgement 2. It is highly likely that JNIM will target the regional capital of Burkina Faso’s Gourma province over the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 3. It Is unlikely JNIM will prioritise expansion into Coastal West Africa over the next 12 months, given the group’s momentum and region-wide instability in the Sahel.