Background

The Serbian government has rejected international calls for sanctions on Russia despite repeated calls over Russia’s actions during the Ukraine conflict. Amidst these tensions, Serbian defence industry exports have increased, fueling a burgeoning arms industry. This increase has also included increasing imports from Russia, including taking the delivery of Russian anti-drone equipment. Furthermore, tensions have risen between Serbia and Kosovo due to alleged discrimination against ethnic Serbs in Northern Kosovo. Having to balance relations with Russia against renewed calls for sanctions will definitely challenge the Balkan state in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 1. It is highly likely that the Serbian government will publicly support Russian policy to establish closer relations with Russia in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 2. It is highly likely that Serbian arms exports industry will grow in the next 12 months, particularly among MENA countries.

Key Judgement 3. It is highly likely that the Serbian government will increase deployments on the border with Kosovo in the next 12 months.