Lebanon’s Hezbollah have launched numerous attacks on Israel, in support of Hamas and the Palestinian people, since the fallout of October 7. As the Israel-Palestine conflict continues, the intensity and frequency of Hezbollah attacks have been increasing. This has raised concerns that an Israel-Lebanon war may be looming. On June 11, an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon killed Taleb Abdallah, a senior Hezbollah commander. In retaliation, Hezbollah launched multiple attacks and barrages of rockets deep inside Israeli territory.  Although neither Israel or Lebanon want a fully-fledged war, neither are making significant efforts to de-escalate the conflict. With Israel receiving support from the US, and Hezbollah linked to Iran, Yemen, and Syria, the conflict between the two sides is both politically sensitive and volatile.

Key Judgment 1. It is likely that returning to a similar pre-October 7 security situation in South Lebanon and North Israel is no longer plausible.

Key Judgment 2. It is highly likely that Israel-Lebanon conflicts will continue to escalate as long as the Israel-Palestine conflict continues.

Key Judgment 3. It is a realistic possibility that an Israel-Lebanon war would become a multi-national conflict.