Since Hamas’ terrorist attacks against Israel on 7 October, Hezbollah has been launching rocket, missile, mortar, and drone attacks on Israeli territory near the Lebanese border. Israeli forces have retaliated with airstrikes and tank and artillery fire. The fighting further escalated in January. On 8 January, Israel killed a commander of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan force in south Lebanon. On 2 January, an Israeli drone strike in Beirut assassinated Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri. Meanwhile, the country remains mired in a dire economic crisis and political deadlock. A significant escalation in the coming months risks an even broader crisis. [Source; Source; Source; Source]
Key Judgement 1: Israel will likely escalate attacks against Hezbollah in the border region in the next 6 months.
Key Judgement 2: Mediation attempts to avert conflict are unlikely to succeed.
Key Judgement 3: Lebanese leaders are unlikely to resolve the country’s political deadlock and economic crisis in the next 6 months.
