Executive Summary

Al-Shabaab’s offensive in Somalia has escalated since February, with the terrorist organisation steadily gaining ground from government troops in the central regions. Maxaas and Moqokori, strategic enclaves that enabled the defence of the capital, are now in the hands of the extremist militants. Furthermore, local reports indicate that Al-Shabaab is operating outside Mogadishu, along the road connecting Balcad and Jowhar. 

Despite these setbacks, the capital is unlikely to suffer an overt assault as the Somali Government and the United States maintain pressure on Al-Shabaab through kinetic activities. These efforts limit the group’s capacity in conventional warfare, but the threat of asymmetric attacks remains high and Al-Shabaab is almost certain to exploit its presence around Mogadishu to strike government installations and military targets.