Spamouflage: China’s Election Interference Operations

China is upping its influence operations game by increasing the aggressiveness of its disinformation campaign, Spamouflage, and targeting voters in the 2024 US presidential election. Chinese APT operations have been operating since 2006 and cyber attacks have been a threat globally including the United States, Germany, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. Spamouflage is the latest attempt by the CCP to increase its influence on American cultural issues and sway public opinion. Previous Spamouflage activity fell under the names Taizi Flood, DRAGONBRIDGE, and Empire Dragon and it targeted elections and inflamed social division in Taiwan, Australia, and Europe.

Impact

The impact of these efforts should not be overestimated, given the poor results. Security researchers across the industry cite low impact and point to a lack of ability to effectively engage Americans. (This is unlike Russian counterparts, which have a more successful history of influence campaigns, primarily in US Elections and in Europe.) However, it is just as important to not underestimate the threat of Chinese influence operations. There are indications that Chinese threat actors are learning from their missteps and making course corrections. The increase of cyber influence campaigns is inline with the goals of the Cognitive Warfare strategy of the People Liberation Army–shaping opinions and controlling information. Likewise, the exercising of patience and persistence aligns with the principles of Unrestricted Warfare.

Key Judgment 1. The impact of Spamouflage operations is low at this time, but it is likely that Chinese operations will improve as they gain insight into how to interact with American culture.

Key Judgment 2. China will likely continue to experiment with new technologies, such as generative AI, to create more believable content and increase the effectiveness of its influence operations.

Key Judgment 3. Chinese influence campaigns are likely to become more aggressive over time as tension rises over geopolitical issues such as Taiwan’s sovereignty and control of the South China Sea.

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