Sudan and Eritrea have an unlikely relationship in a region where both are often overshadowed by the dynamics of larger neighbours. Since independence from Ethiopia, past disputes dissipated. New dynamics replaced old ones. Russia, the US and China are currently vying for influence in East Africa, with both nations caught in the middle. Sudan’s transition to civilian rule and invitation to Russia to build a naval base on its Red Sea coastline will draw Eritrea into a new Russian-Chinese orbit developing in East Africa. 

Key Judgment-1: It is likely that Eritrea will foster closer ties with Khartoum in the next 12 months.  

Key Judgment-2: It is highly likely that closer relations with Sudan will foster closer relations with Moscow in the next 12 months. 

Key Judgment-3: It is unlikely that Eritrea or Sudan will exclusively compete for a Russian naval base in the next 12 months.