Taiwan and Latin America: A 24-month Forecast

China’s (PRC) attempts to increase its power in Latin America have left Taiwan (officially the Republic of China or RDC) unsure about its diplomatic relations with some allies. The “One-China Policy” is also limiting Taiwan’s official diplomatic relations with Latin American countries. As a result, only a few countries in the region continue to have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Nonetheless, Taiwan is trying to strengthen its economic and cultural connections with Latin America. In addition, Taiwan’s semiconductor and technology industry can prove useful in maintaining some influence in the region.

Key judgement 1. Taiwan’s influence in Latin America is highly likely to continue to decline due to diplomatic and economic pressure from China.

Key judgement 2. Taiwan will likely try to counter China’s influence in Latin America, focusing on preventing its remaining allies from turning to China.

Key judgement 3. Despite China’s strong economic capacity, Taiwan’s semiconductor industry is likely to play an important role in relations with Latin America.

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