Taiwan’s January 2024 elections resulted in a divided government. Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the presidency, however the DPP failed to win a majority. An alliance between the main opposition, Kuomintang (KMT), and the Taiwan’s People’s Party (TPP), holds 60/113 seats. And, therefore controls the legislature. In May, they pushed through a controversial legislative reform bill, which Lai signed on 24 June. Part of this new bill is a ‘contempt of legislature’ clause which will impose fines and even a prison term of up to a year for officials who ‘disrespect’ parliament. This has caused much dispute in Taiwan, with thousands protesting. Many DPP supporters are concerned that this new legislature represents an attempted legislative coup d’etat. However, the KMT states the new laws are badly needed to redress the power imbalance between the legislature and Taiwan’s powerful presidency.
Key Judgment 1. It is likely that contention around the new legislature will drive an increasing political rift between supporters of the DPP and KMT.
Key Judgment 2. It is likely that Taiwan’s divided government and new legislature will significantly disrupt the functioning of Lai’s administration.
Key Judgment 3. It is highly likely that Taiwan’s increasingly fractured political structure will make it more vulnerable to Beijing.
