Tapping the Depths: Security Implications of Pakistan’s New Offshore Oil and Gas Reserves

Executive Summary

Could Pakistan’s new found offshore oil and gas reserves be the solution to its long festering security and economic woes? Senior Pakistani officials certainly believe so [source]. Following a 3 year long energy survey, Pakistan may be sitting on what amounts to the world’s 4th largest source of untapped oil and gas reserves.

Pakistan’s economy has been in a tail spin for several years now. Catastrophic flooding in 2022, gasoline rationing, dwindling reserves of foreign cash and high inflation all combined into a toxic admixture for economic growth. On top of this, Islamabad is laden with a tremendous amount of foreign debt, totaling approximately $126 billion. As major economic indices trend downwards, security dynamics suffer proportionally, with rates of violence and terror on the rise since 2021 [source].

We do not expect this recent discovery of offshore hydrocarbons to have an immediate and tangible effect on Pakistan’s deteriorating economic health and security issues. We believe that China will play a large role in assisting Pakistan in exploiting these untapped reserves. Moreover, we expect to see emergent tensions between Pakistan and India over a failure to demarcate the exact coordinates of its maritime border.

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