Ukraine is running special operations against Russian private contractors and state forces in Africa. The Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has claimed publicly operational responsibility for the recent attacks in Mali and Sudan against the Wagner Group and the Afrika Corps. (Source, source)

Although the special operations of Ukraine could have a tactical effect on Russian military capacity, it could also backfire on its diplomatic efforts in the region. Nations from the Sahel severed relations with Ukrainian president, Volodímir Zelenski, following the deadly collusion between Ukrainian operators and Tuareg militias. (Source, source)

Africa is closely becoming a proxy conflict between Ukrainian Intelligence and the Russian Military, but the question that needs to be asked is if the tactical value of special operations could hinder the strategic interest of diplomatic efforts. There is also the threat of tension between local officials supporting Ukraine and rival governments backing Russia. 

Key Judgement 1. There is a realistic probability that Ukrainian special operations in Africa will inflict significant losses to Russia’s military capabilities.

Key Judgement 2. It is highly likely that Ukrainian military actions against Russia in Mali and Sudan will have a negative impact on Ukraine’s diplomatic relations with various African nations.

Key Judgement 3. The Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence will highly likely expand its operations into East Africa and Central Africa.