Executive Summary
The United States has not seen the breakaway or secession of a state since the Civil War in the 1800s. That said, secessionist movements remain active in various parts of the nation, gaining recent momentum especially in Eastern Oregon, Illinois, and Texas, but seen as far afield as Hawaii, where grievances over the forced acquisition of the islands in 1898 remains a sore point. Political, cultural, and economic divides drive these campaigns. Rural and urban cleavages, as well as disagreements between state and federal governments, signal the divide.
We assess that there is a low probability of any current secession movement succeeding absent the rise of significant unforeseen socio-political, economic, or security developments. They remain legally constrained and fragmented, border changes would be exceptionally complicated to achieve, and the changes advocated by these movements would cause the loss of significant funding, on which their territories depend, from higher levels of government. Nonetheless, the situation showcases the ongoing political polarization and mistrust in the US. National discourse and system cohesion are increasingly under challenge, while anti-federal sentiments in some pockets of society continue to simmer.
