Russia’s diplomatic influence and military interests in the Sahel have increased rapidly in the last five years. Afrika Corps or the Wagner Group, are the private contractors responsible for enabling Moscow presence in the Sahel through military assistance to military juntas. The Kremlin has shown interest in filling the vacuum left by Paris and Washington, and the recent military coups in the Sahel have proved an advantageous situation for the military contractors. 

However, recent events cast doubt on the military contractor’s ability to secure the legitimacy of the juntas or contribute to the stability of the region. The ambush suffered by the Wagner Group on Adrar des Ifoghas or the Afrika Corps documented massacres in Dakka Sebbe and Ouro Fer threat to deteriorate even more the security environment of the desert region. 

Key Judgement 1. There is a realistic probability that Russia’s presence in the Sahel will further destabilize the region, contributing for the rise of extremism among local communities.

Key Judgement 2.  African political and military elites are unlikely to sever relations with Russia in the near term as long as their positions in the Sahel are secure.

Key Judgement 3.  The North Mali ambush will likely be a military setback for the Wagner Group and Afrika Corps short-term operations in the Sahel.