Russia owns and operates a growing shadow fleet of ageing tanker ships that obfuscate ownership records and exist to transport sanctioned oil to Russia’s allies. These vessels are often poorly maintained and lack the insurance required to transport crude oil. Additionally, vessels that operate in the shadow fleet do so in a grey area of international and maritime law. Many of these ships are ageing beyond the average age seen in fleets operating within the laws. This can lead to neglect and inability for these ships to receive proper servicing required to maintain seaworthy conditions. 

Key Judgment 1. Russia is highly likely to continue efforts to circumvent sanctions as the impact on their economy is felt.

Key Judgment 2. As the ageing shadow fleet operations become more dangerous, the opportunity for catastrophic environmental incidents increases.

Key Judgment 3. The international community will likely continue to increase pressure around sanctions compliance.