Executive Summary

We assess that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is increasing its use of grey zone activities against Taiwan in a coercive attempt to unite the island with China’s mainland. Beijing since 2016 has relied on hybrid warfare as its main weapon to undermine Taipei’s legitimacy.  The recent increase in anti-Taipei efforts follows the election of a new pro-independence leader earlier this year. [source, source, source].

Further, Beijing continues to actively pursue diplomatic and economic efforts to convince other countries to cease their ties with the island. In January 2024, Nauru announced it would cut ties with Taiwan in favour of China. On 06 December 2024, Paraguay ordered a Chinese diplomat to leave the country over pressure to cut ties with Taiwan. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Taiwan, the country now has formal diplomatic relationships with only 12 nations. [source, source, source]

China also continues to support aggressive intelligence activities on the island. In August, Taiwan busted a Chinese 10-person spy ring, involving active and former Taiwanese military officers. [source] On December 6th 2024, four Taiwanese soldiers have been accused of transmitting classified information to Beijing. [source]

This is all in line with China’s broad ambitions to counter rivals in the region. Over the past decade, Beijing used approximately 80 different grey zone tactics across all instruments of national power.