On 29 November 2023, Burkina Faso and Niger decided to withdraw from the G5 Sahel, similar to Mali’s decision in 2022. Mauritania and Chad, the last two members, moved to dissolve the group on 3 December. Since 2017, the G5 Sahel has been an important tool in combating terrorism and promoting regional cooperation. However, given France’s expulsion in 2023 and subsequent coups in G5 member states forming AES, the group’s overall impact was limited. Additionally, such a dissolution will push Mauritania and Chad to seek alternative security partnerships. 

Key Judgement 1: It is unlikely that the dissolution of the G5 Sahel will impact Sahelian security and cooperation over the next 6 months.

Key Judgement 2: Mauritania is likely to seek security partnerships with West African nations and the EU rather than the former G5 states. 

Key Judgement 3: It is likely that Chad will develop closer ties to the UAE and France over the next 6 months to guarantee its security concerns in Sudan.