Background

Nine months after a devastating two-year war in the Tigray region, fighting has broken out in the neighbouring Amhara region between regional forces, the nationalist ‘Fano’ militia, and the Ethiopian government. In April 2023, federal forces entered the Amhara region to disarm local and paramilitary forces. Civilians moved to remote areas, while resistant fighters protested alongside police forces. Amhara nationalists accused the federal government of deliberately weakening their region, leading to clashes between the army and Fano. Since then, Ethiopia implemented a six-month state of emergency and curfew in the region. The conflict is now Ethiopia’s biggest security crisis since Tigray.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is facing dire internal turmoil. His support base in Ormoria continues to dwindle with the threat of an Omoria Liberation Army (OLA) rebellion. The future of Abiy’s government and Ethiopia remains uncertain.

Key Judgement 1. ENDF will very likely attempt to retake Fano-held territory in the next 6 months.

Key Judgement 2. As the situation in Amhara escalates, Prime Minister Abiy will likely struggle to garner support from Oromia for the peace talks with the OLA.

Key Judgement 3. The escalating tensions between Amhara and Tigray likely pose a risk of involving Eritrea in the conflict and placing strain on the delicate détente between the two nations.