Relations between Chad and Sudan have worsened since the conflict in Sudan occurred in April 2023. Sudanese officials and SAF members claim that Chad is involved in the facilitating of arms to the RSF through their borders leading to the recent diplomatic expulsion of diplomats in both countries. Additionally, the influx of refugees and reported war crimes on ethnic groups from Sudan by the RSF has led the situation to become uneasy between both countries as Chad and Sudan face worsening instability. 

Key Judgement 1. Chad and Sudanese relations will likely decline over the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 2. Chad will likely reinforce its refugee hosting capabilities with foreign partners as the conflict worsens in Sudan over the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 3. Conflict between Sudan and Chad is unlikely to occur over the next 12 months as both nations focus on domestic issues.