Executive Summary

The U.S. throughout 2025 was at the forefront of debates over the Arctic, with President Donald Trump’s stated ambitions to control Greenland, calls for NATO to enhance security, and plans to revive Reagan’s Strategic Defence Initiative with a ‘Golden Dome for America.’ Amidst the political controversy is a lack of a clear Arctic strategy, which was last published in 2022.

In the first six months of 2026, we expect tensions over Greenland to continue to decrease as the U.S. makes security arrangements with NATO and Denmark. Towards the middle and end of 2026, NATO’s Arctic Sentry mission, established in February 2026, will be in full effect. The U.S. is poised to play a lead role in the mission, but the planned extent of U.S. on-the-ground involvement remains unclear. 

In the long-term, new U.S. space-based initiatives focused on the Arctic are underway for 2026. That said, this year, we are unlikely to see deployment of the much touted ‘Golden Dome’ missile system, which includes plans for elements based in the Arctic (including in Greenland) to target ICBM flight paths over the region.