Mexico is experiencing its more intense wave of Close Quarter Battles (CQB) between criminal factions and government operatives in Culiacán. Mayo Zambada’s recent arrest in the United States in July unleashed internal clashes between factions of the Sinaloa Cartel.
Los Chapitos (Son of El Chapo) and Los Mayos (Supporters of el Mayo) have battled each other for the last four days to gain control of the criminal organization. The use of armoured vehicles and also heavy weapons have brought the city to a sieged state. (Source) (Source)
Officials from Culiacán called for the population to remain calm amid the narco violence. However, the current conflict is setting the stage for a newer chapter in the Drug War as the Mexican Government and the Sinaloa Cartel deploy heavier weaponry and massive resources.
Key Judgment 1. There is a realistic probability that Mayo Zambada supporters will seize Sinaloa Cartel power from the sons of El Chapo Guzmán.
Key Judgment 2. The Mexican Government will likely use the conflict to confront the drug cartels with military means and regain legitimacy as a public order enforcer.
Key Judgment 3. There is a realistic probability that the conflict between El Mayo and El Chapo in Sinaloa will spread to California.