Chile, Bolivia and Peru Tri-border: A 12-month Forecast

The tri-border between Peru, Chile, and Bolivia is located in the high Andes Mountains and is the point where the three countries meet. It is also known as the “Trifinio” in Spanish or “Tripoint” in English. This border region remains a point of political and historical significance for all three countries. The area is rich in natural resources but is also a destination for irregular migration, particularly from Bolivia to Chile. This leads to challenges around border management, labour exploitation, and human trafficking. The region is also a significant transit route for drug trafficking, particularly of cocaine produced in Bolivia and Peru.

Key judgement 1. It is highly likely that in the next 12 months, there will be tensions in the borders between the three countries given the immigration crisis in the region.

Key judgement 2. It is likely that in the next 12 months, the discovery of natural resources in the area, especially lithium,  may lead to internal conflicts and regional spillovers.

Key judgement 3. It is likely that in the next 12 months, there will be an increase in criminal and drug trafficking activities in the region.

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