Executive Summary

We assess that China is intensifying espionage efforts against Russia, a trend that will likely continue over the next 5 years. A leaked Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) document reportedly designates China as “the enemy,” reflecting Moscow’s concern that its focus on Ukraine has created vulnerabilities for foreign intelligence penetration. This raises questions about the durability of the Sino-Russian relationship and the implications of China’s activities. We assess that, despite the strain espionage places on the relationship, it is unlikely to significantly weaken the broader partnership, as both sides continue to benefit strategically and economically. In fact, we assess that China is likely to expand its strategic and economic footprint in Russia. This is particularly in the Far East and Arctic, where Moscow’s capacity to resist external influence remains limited. 

Images Sourced From: Office of the President of Russia, Kremlin.ru, Presidential Executive Office of Russia, Russian government