Executive Summary

The Mekong River is a vital lifeline for Southeast Asia, sustaining millions of people by providing essential resources for agriculture, fisheries, energy, and trade. However, control over its waters is increasingly dictated by China’s upstream hydropolitics. Over the past two decades, Beijing has consolidated its influence by constructing a series of dams along the upper parts of the river, known as the Lancang in China, enabling it to regulate and control water flows to downstream countries.

China exercises this control through the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC), a multilateral framework that operates simultaneously and often in preference over the more transparent and inclusive Mekong River Commission (MRC). This strategy allows Beijing to manage water discharges while selectively disclosing data and directing infrastructure investments on its terms.

The impact on downstream nations, particularly Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam, has become increasingly critical. Irregular flow patterns linked to China’s water retention have disrupted agriculture, fisheries, and local livelihoods. Beyond hydrology, China is also expanding its footprint through investments in digital infrastructure and energy, further tightening regional dependencies.

While Western-aligned initiatives such as the Mekong-U.S. Partnership (MUSP) and Japan’s cooperation via JICA provide some counterbalance, they have yet to offer a comparable strategic alternative. The effects of climate change add another layer of complexity, intensifying the region’s water insecurity. Although several downstream states have embarked on dam-building efforts of their own, these projects lack the geopolitical leverage and upstream positioning that give China an advantage. As a result, Beijing remains the powerhouse shaping the Mekong’s future.

Image Sourced From: Jaryiahr Khan